A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
